HOUSTON–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Jul 16, 2026–
Structural supply constraints have become one of the defining forces shaping global real estate investment, according to Hines’ 2026 Mid Year Outlook released today.
The report finds that long-term demand has accelerated, fueled by trends such as artificial intelligence and electrification, at a time when new development remains difficult to deliver across many sectors and markets. As competition for land and power intensifies, Hines believes the next phase of the real estate cycle will increasingly reward investors who recognize the scarcity advantage and identify markets where long-term demand has been reinforced by meaningful barriers to future supply.
“Investors have spent the past several years focused on inflation, interest rates and economic uncertainty,” said David Steinbach, global chief investment officer at Hines. “Those factors remain important, but we believe the defining investment question has shifted. Increasingly, the issue isn’t whether demand exists. It’s whether markets can deliver the housing, logistics and digital infrastructure needed to keep pace with it.”
The report comes as commercial real estate enters a new phase of recovery following two years of repricing. Financing conditions have improved, transaction activity has begun to recover and capital has gradually returned to the market. Yet leasing fundamentals remain uneven across sectors and regions. According to Hines, that disconnect could be creating a window for investors to position ahead of a broader recovery by focusing on markets where long-term demand and constrained future supply are most closely aligned.
“Our research suggests this will likely be a cycle defined by selectivity rather than broad market exposure,” said Joshua Scoville, head of global research at Hines. “The opportunity isn’t simply identifying where demand is strongest. It’s identifying where lasting scarcity is most likely to emerge because demand should outpace future supply. That distinction is becoming increasingly important as development slows across much of the world while long-term demand drivers continue to accelerate.”
Among the report’s findings:
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Housing fundamentals could be poised to improve: Quarterly U.S. apartment starts have fallen to their lowest level in 14 years, setting the stage for a healthier supply-demand balance as new deliveries slow.
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Some capital markets have recovered faster than operating fundamentals: Improved liquidity and debt availability have created selective opportunities, even as leasing conditions continue to vary widely across sectors and markets.
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Retail has continued to benefit from years of underbuilding: More than a decade of limited new retail development has strengthened the outlook for necessity-based and dominant retail centers.
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Industrial opportunities have become increasingly market specific: Approximately 340 million square feet of industrial space remains under construction in the U.S., reinforcing the importance of focusing on locations where land, infrastructure and future development remain constrained (CoStar, Q1 2026).
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Long-term structural demand has continued to strengthen: As artificial intelligence and electrification reshape the economy, demand for housing, logistics facilities and powered land continues to grow, while new supply remains difficult to bring online.
“Markets often focus on what’s growing,” Steinbach added. “We’re increasingly focused on what’s difficult to build. In our view, that’s the scarcity advantage.”
The full 2026 Hines Mid Year Outlook is available here The Scarcity Advantage.
About Hines
Hines is a leading global real estate investment manager. We own and operate $91.7 billion 1 of assets across property types and on behalf of a diverse group of institutional and private wealth clients. Every day, our 4,600 employees in 30 countries draw on our 69-year history to build the world forward by investing in, developing, and managing some of the world’s best real estate. To learn more, visit www.hines.com and follow @Hines on social media.
¹Includes both the global Hines organization and RIA AUM as of December 31, 2025.
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KEYWORD: UNITED STATES NORTH AMERICA TEXAS
INDUSTRY KEYWORD: PROFESSIONAL SERVICES RESIDENTIAL BUILDING & REAL ESTATE COMMERCIAL BUILDING & REAL ESTATE FINANCE CONSTRUCTION & PROPERTY ASSET MANAGEMENT REIT
SOURCE: Hines
Copyright Business Wire 2026.
PUB: 07/16/2026 10:00 AM/DISC: 07/16/2026 10:00 AM
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260716690889/en
