SpaceX’s blockbuster IPO is set to unleash a trading bonanza in US options markets in the coming weeks, analysts say, as investors seek ways to bet on the company’s lofty US$1.77trn valuation.
“We anticipate significant trading interest in SpaceX options once they list, particularly in short-dated OTM [out-the-money] contracts,” said Garrett DeSimone, head of quantitative research at data provider OptionMetrics.
“Retail investors are drawn to these for their leverage and lottery-like payoffs, and given the excitement around the IPO, we expect option premiums and implied volatilities to be elevated – reflecting both the convex return potential and heavy retail participation.”
There is no confirmed launch date for listed options contracts on SpaceX from major exchanges such as Cboe, Nasdaq and NYSE. For mega-caps like SpaceX, though, option contracts typically start trading two business days after the IPO.
The market debut for Elon’s Musk’s space and AI behemoth comes as US options trading has mushroomed. Average daily volumes have hit 70m contracts so far in 2026, according to Options Clearing Corp, more than quadrupling from a decade ago.
That expansion coincides with a period when retail investors have become progressively more active in US equity markets, with many turning to short-dated options to bet on stock price moves. Retail investors are expected to take down an unusually large chunk – around 20%–25% – of the SpaceX IPO.
“Retail traders are the new price setters in the market,” Scott Rubner, head of equity and equity derivatives strategy at Citadel Securities, wrote in a May 28 report that noted volumes across the marketmaker’s retail cash equities and options platforms were tracking at record levels for the month.
“Retail participation is increasingly focused on the same high-quality leadership names as institutional investors, particularly across semiconductors, AI infrastructure and mega-cap technology,” Rubner said.
Musk’s legions of fans have already helped make Tesla options the fourth most actively traded contracts in the market, according to OCC data. Roughly 610m Tesla options have traded so far this year.
That’s nearly as much as the combined options activity in Apple, Amazon and Microsoft – despite those companies all boasting a far larger market cap than the EV maker. Only options on the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Nvidia are more popular.
Getting bearish
Many analysts have focused on the upside potential for SpaceX shares in the first few weeks of trading. A thin free-float of about 4%, the IPO’s oversubscription and the fast-track inclusion into benchmark indices like the Nasdaq 100 all point to strong buying pressure to come.
However, the launch of SpaceX options will also provide a way for the many doubters of SpaceX’s hefty price tag to take the other side of that bet. DeSimone said there is typically a meaningful premium for put options (which look to profit from shares falling) over call options (which profit from them rising) in the aftermath of an IPO.
That’s largely the result of the lockup period, which stops insiders from selling shares for several weeks. That makes it hard for investors to borrow shares to short the stock, pushing up demand for put options that can express the same view in derivatives markets.
SpaceX has implemented a staggered share release schedule to help mitigate this dynamic. Even so, DeSimone said SpaceX put options should trade at a significant premium once the contracts launch.
“I would anticipate it becomes very expensive to express bearish views via puts in the early stages after the IPO before insiders are allowed to sell their shares,” he said. “There’s just not enough free-float available to short shares. This gets transferred into [high] borrow costs and ultimately into the price of puts.”
