Eli Lilly (LLY) management said on its second-quarter 2026 call that the price of Zepbound, its obesity drug, will go down. The company’s sales growth rests on two drugs whose prices are falling – Zepbound and Mounjaro. That makes it difficult to call the stock’s coming twelve months. So how do you really understand the risk you are taking with Eli Lilly stock? Well, you can look at the options market.
Eli Lilly Stock Has A Wide Range Priced In
The options market is pricing a wide range for Eli Lilly stock over the coming twelve months. That market puts a price on how much a stock could move. The price can be read as a low and a high in dollars.
Eli Lilly stock is at about $1,161 today. The options in question expire on September 17, 2027. The low end of the range by that date, the floor, is about $803. The high end, the ceiling, is about $1,679.
The options market prices about two chances in three that the stock ends inside that range. The range is a price for uncertainty, not a forecast. A fall to the floor is priced as more likely than a rise to the ceiling. The chance of ending below the floor is 21%, against 12% for ending above the ceiling.
If you bought $10,000 of the stock today, it would be worth about $3,084 less at the floor. The same holding would be worth about $4,460 more at the ceiling.
Has Eli Lilly Stock Moved This Much Before?
Yes, going by its daily moves, Eli Lilly stock moved about this much over the past year. Implied volatility is the yearly movement in a stock that is built into option prices. For Eli Lilly, the one-year figure is 37.5%. The stock’s own daily moves over the past year work out to 35.3% on the same yearly basis.
The options market is therefore pricing a little more movement than the stock has shown. The two figures are close. The wide range is in line with how the stock has behaved.
Eli Lilly’s lowest daily close in the past year was about $727. The stock has already been below the floor. Its highest close was about $1,280. The ceiling is above any close in that period.
Zepbound Prices Are Falling, And Eli Lilly Needs Volume
Eli Lilly is counting on more prescriptions to make up for falling prices on Mounjaro and Zepbound. Those two drugs were $14.9 billion of the company’s $23.0 billion in revenue in the second quarter of 2026. U.S. revenue rose 33% that quarter, mainly on volume from the two drugs. Across all U.S. sales, price fell 3%, driven by the same two drugs. That fall would have been larger without a change to estimates for rebates and discounts.
