The stock market is closed, but Nikkei 225 futures are moving? Things to know before considering stock prices on November 4th

🍀 AI Stock Notes | Evening Edition, Tuesday, November 3, 2026 (Holiday)

“Today is a holiday and the stock market is closed, so why are Nikkei 225 futures falling?”

Have you ever seen news like that and wondered why?

Actually, today, November 3rd, the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s cash equity market was closed, but holiday trading for products like Nikkei 225 futures was conducted at the Osaka Exchange.

And in the night session that ended at 6:00 AM today, Nikkei 225 futures were at 62,780 yen.

This figure is 301.86 yen lower than the closing price of the Nikkei Stock Average on the previous business day.

So, will Japanese stocks start 301.86 yen lower tomorrow, November 4th?

The answer is “not necessarily.”

Today, I will look back at the holiday trading mentioned in the morning edition and consider how to interpret futures.

📘 Why do stocks move even on holidays?

First, let’s organize the market situation for today.

Tuesday, November 3, 2026, is Culture Day.

On the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s cash equity market, regular stock trading is not conducted.

Therefore, there is no new cash market closing price for the Nikkei Stock Average or TOPIX for November 3rd.

On the other hand, at the Osaka Exchange, holiday trading was conducted for some derivative products, such as Nikkei 225 futures and TOPIX futures.

Derivatives are financial products whose value is determined based on the price of something else, such as a stock index.

One of these is “futures.”

Futures trading is a transaction where you agree to buy or sell at a predetermined price at a set time in the future.

In the case of Nikkei 225 futures, the target is the stock index known as the Nikkei Stock Average.

What is important here is that

The Nikkei Stock Average itself and the Nikkei 225 futures price are different things.

Even if the cash market is closed, if the futures market is open, the futures price can move.

📉 Futures figures that could actually be confirmed

Now, let’s look at the figures that could be confirmed today.

[Cash market on Monday, November 2nd]

Nikkei Stock Average: 63,081.86 yen

[Night session ending at 6:00 AM on Tuesday, November 3rd]

Nikkei 225 Futures, December 2026 contract: 62,780 yen

Change from previous day’s settlement price: -480 yen

This night session took place from the evening of November 2nd to 6:00 AM on November 3rd.

It does not indicate the closing price of the holiday daytime session on November 3rd.

Also, there was a difference of 301.86 yen between the futures price of 62,780 yen and the most recent cash closing price of 63,081.86 yen.

*Regarding the holiday daytime session on November 3rd, while we have confirmed that trading took place, we have not adopted it in this article because we could not verify the final closing price with reliable sources.

💡 If futures are cheap, will the next day’s stock price also fall?

This is the most important point to know today.

Suppose the Nikkei 225 futures were trading at a price 300 yen lower than the cash Nikkei Stock Average.

Seeing that difference,

“The Nikkei Average will fall by 300 yen tomorrow!”

Some people might think that.

However, it cannot be judged so simply.

Let’s consider the reasons.

Futures have a pricing mechanism that differs from the spot market

Futures prices are influenced by interest rates, dividends, and the time remaining until settlement.

Therefore, it is not inherently unnatural for there to be a difference between futures prices and the spot index.

In particular, what we checked this time was the December 2026 futures contract.

It is not necessary for the price to perfectly match the spot Nikkei 225 index.

New information may emerge by tomorrow morning

Futures prices change to reflect the information and investor outlook at that time.

However, prices continue to move thereafter.

For example, between tonight and tomorrow morning,

・The U.S. stock market moves significantly

・Exchange rates change

・Important corporate earnings are announced

・Unexpected political or economic news is released

If any of these occur, market sentiment may change.

Therefore, you cannot determine the opening price of the spot market at 9:00 AM the next morning based solely on the 6:00 AM futures price.

🇺🇸 U.S. stock movements observed during the market holiday

Although Japanese stocks were closed today, regular trading for November 2nd (Monday) has concluded in the U.S.

Let’s check the results.

【U.S. Stocks on November 2nd】

NY Dow: $51,983.98 (+0.41%)

S&P 500: 7,541.40 (-0.51%)

Nasdaq Composite: 25,164.32 (-1.07%)

The major US indices did not all move in the same direction.

While the NY Dow rose, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell.

Market reports point to a sell-off in tech stocks due to concerns over the profitability of massive investments by AI-related companies.

This movement in the US market is a factor to keep in mind when considering Japanese semiconductor-related stocks.

However, just because the US Nasdaq fell does not necessarily mean that all Japanese semiconductor-related stocks will fall.

Reactions vary depending on corporate earnings, prior stock price levels, and currency movements.

🔍 How should we think about the market opening on November 4th?

From here on, these are approaches that stock market beginners can actually use.

For example, suppose that at 8:30 AM on November 4th, Nikkei 225 futures were trading at a level significantly lower than the previous business day’s cash closing price.

In that case, it serves as a clue to consider the possibility of a weak start for Japanese stocks.

However, you do not need to decide on buying or selling based on that alone.

Here is what you should check:

First, check the time of the information.

Is it the futures price from last night, or the price at 8:30 AM this morning?

Even with the same numerical value, the meaning changes depending on when the information is from.

Next, look at changes in the US market and exchange rates.

The results of the US stock market on November 3rd will be confirmed on the morning of November 4th, Japan time.

As of the time of writing this evening edition, the results are not yet finalized.

Finally, check the actual reaction once the cash market opens.

When the Tokyo market reopens at 9:00 AM, I will check not only the Nikkei 225 but also the TOPIX and movements by sector.

If you are paying attention to specific individual stocks, remember that they do not always move in the same direction as the index.

📊 Let’s think using hypothetical numbers

Here, we will think using a simple example.

※The following is not an actual forecast for November 4th, but a hypothetical example for explanation.

【Cash closing price of the previous business day】

Nikkei 225: 40,000 yen

【Futures price at 8:30 AM the next morning】

Nikkei 225 futures: 39,700 yen

The futures price is 300 yen lower than the cash closing price.

However, the opening price of the cash market at 9:00 AM the next morning is not necessarily 39,700 yen.

For example,

・Possibility of starting at 39,600 yen

・Possibility of starting at 39,800 yen

・Possibility of rising due to subsequent buybacks

Multiple developments are possible.

Futures are important reference information, but they do not guarantee the opening price of the cash market.

Also, this 300 yen difference itself does not mean the ‘expected decline for tomorrow’.

We should not forget that the mechanisms for futures and spot prices are different.

🌅 Points of interest for tomorrow, Wednesday, November 4th

Tomorrow, the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s spot market will reopen.

As of tonight, the following factors are of particular concern.

The latest price of Nikkei 225 futures

We want to check not only the daytime trading on the holiday but also the subsequent night session and the next morning’s prices.

US midterm elections

November 3rd is the voting day for the US midterm elections.

The vote counting status may be on the market’s radar on November 4th, Japan time.

However, it is necessary to check information during the vote count and the final results separately.

Movements in AI and semiconductor-related stocks

The Nasdaq fell in the US market on November 2nd.

A key point is how Japanese related companies will incorporate the movements of US stocks and their own financial results.

Here too, it is important not to decide on a direction in advance, but to confirm the actual results.

🍀 Today’s lesson

“Futures are a clue to thinking about tomorrow’s market. But they are not the answer that determines the next day’s stock price.”

Even on days when the spot market is closed, you can prepare for the next trade by checking futures and overseas markets.

However, when checking numbers, always be sure to check:

“What the price is”

“When the price is from”

Distinguish between “cash and futures.”

Let’s distinguish between them.

Just doing this will help reduce misinterpretations of investment news.

📚 Recommended reading

🍀 November 3rd Morning Edition

An article previewing holiday trading and key points for the following day on a day when the TSE cash market is closed.