1. Introduction: The Third-Largest Decline in History—What Lies Ahead?
On November 6, 2026, the Japanese stock market was hit by a major shock.
The Nikkei Stock Average fell by 3,643.13 yen from the previous day to close at 57,434.77 yen, a decline of 5.96%. This marked the third-largest point drop in history.
At one point, it fell below 57,000 yen, and the market saw a broad-based decline with approximately 98% of stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market losing value.
The primary driver of this decline was the sharp drop in AI and semiconductor-related stocks in the U.S. market.
In particular, concerns surrounding AI-related data center investments and regulations spread, leading to heavy selling, primarily among semiconductor-related companies.
In the Japanese market as well, semiconductor-related stocks such as Advantest, Tokyo Electron, and Kioxia fell significantly, dragging down the Nikkei Stock Average.
So, has the Nikkei Stock Average entered a full-scale downward phase due to this sharp drop?
Or is a rebound due to short-term overselling approaching?
In this article, I would like to analyze the future market outlook by referring not only to the Nikkei Stock Average spot price but also to Nikkei 225 futures night session data and technical indicators.
2. The Situation of the Nikkei Stock Average and Futures on November 6
First, let’s organize the movements of the spot and futures markets.
Indicator Price
Nikkei Average Closing Price 57,434.77 yen, Previous Day Change -3,643.13 yen, Decline Rate -5.96%
Nikkei Average Daily High 60,374.35 yen
Nikkei Average Daily Low 56,745.81 yen
Nikkei 225 Futures Night Session Settlement Price 57,400 yen
What is noteworthy is that while the Nikkei Stock Average recorded its third-largest decline in history, the Nikkei 225 futures night session also ended trading at 57,400 yen.
The spot closing price of 57,434.77 yen and the futures settlement price of 57,400 yen are at almost the same level.
In other words, as of the end of the night session, no rebound significant enough to overturn the sharp drop in the spot market was confirmed.
However, since futures are traded even after the spot market closes, it is necessary to pay attention to subsequent price changes.
Futures prices fluctuate while reflecting U.S. stocks, exchange rates, and the trading trends of overseas investors.
When considering the Japanese market for the next business day, it is necessary to check not only the spot closing price but also the price range in which futures are trading.
3. Technical Analysis of Nikkei 225 Futures
In this analysis, I would also like to focus on the moving averages and technical indicators of the Nikkei 225 futures.
The technical points released at the end of the November 6th night session indicate the following levels.
Technical Indicator Prices
・5-day moving average: 61,504 yen
・25-day moving average: 65,470.80 yen
・75-day moving average: 65,477.87 yen
・200-day moving average: 62,030.25 yen
・Bollinger Band -3σ: 55,543.12 yen
Of particular note is that the futures price of 57,400 yen is significantly below the 5-day moving average.
Short-term price momentum is weak, and the moving average may be perceived as resistance on the upside.
Meanwhile, the -3σ of the Bollinger Bands is located near 55,543 yen.
This level serves as a reference price to be mindful of should the current decline continue further.
However, reaching the -3σ of the Bollinger Bands does not necessarily mean a rebound will occur.
In a strong downward trend, prices can sometimes continue to fall along the lower side of the band.
Therefore, rather than judging the bottom based solely on moving averages or Bollinger Bands, I would also like to check the trading volume and futures price movements.
4. The Current Market as Seen from RSI and MACD
Important in technical analysis are the RSI and MACD.
The RSI is an indicator used to judge whether the market is overbought or oversold, while the MACD is used to compare short-term and medium-to-long-term price momentum.
In the futures technical indicators we can confirm this time,
・RSI is 45.928,
・MACD is negative 318.544
are the current values.
Generally, an RSI of 30 or below is often judged as oversold, and 70 or above as overbought.
Since the current RSI has not fallen below 30, it cannot be said that the market is extremely oversold on a futures basis.
On the other hand, the MACD is in negative territory, suggesting that downward momentum remains.
What is important here is that the prices and calculation targets differ between the cash index and futures.
The RSI calculated from the cash Nikkei 225 index and the RSI calculated from futures prices cannot be equated.
At this point, it is difficult to say that a clear shift to an upward trend has been confirmed in the futures market.
5. Important Price Ranges Moving Forward
When considering the future of the Nikkei Stock Average, support and resistance levels become important.
Given the recent sharp decline, I would like to focus on the following price ranges.
Upside Benchmarks
Price Range Reason for Focus 58,500 yen Level to confirm a short-term recovery 59,000 yen Level to confirm the strength of the rebound 60,000 yen Psychological milestone Around 61,500 yen 5-day moving average of futures
First, it is important to see if it can recover to around 58,500 yen.
After that, if it can rise in stages to 59,000 yen and 60,000 yen, there is a possibility that the short-term rebound is strengthening.
However, there is also a possibility that selling pressure will emerge near 60,000 yen.
Downside Benchmarks
Price Range Reason for Focus 57,000 yen Recent important psychological milestone 56,745 yen Cash low on November 6th Around 55,500 yen Near the -3σ Bollinger band of futures 55,000 yen Next psychological milestone
Caution is required, especially if it clearly falls below 57,000 yen.
If it breaks through the recent low, investor anxiety may intensify again, leading to a search for lower levels.
On the other hand, if it stops falling near 57,000 yen and buying back of futures increases, a short-term rebound could be considered.
6. Considering Future Market Developments in Three Scenarios
From here, I would like to consider the future movements of the Nikkei Stock Average by dividing them into three scenarios.
Scenario 1: Heading toward an autonomous rebound
The first possibility is a rebound due to buying back after a sharp decline.
The Nikkei Stock Average fell for 5 consecutive business days, and on November 6th, it recorded the third-largest decline in history.
After such a sharp decline, short-term buying back sometimes occurs.
In particular, if US semiconductor stocks stabilize and Nikkei 225 futures can recover to around 58,500 yen, a move to test 59,000 to 60,000 yen is also conceivable.
However, this rebound does not necessarily mean a shift to a full-scale upward trend.
Scenario 2: Consolidation due to selling on rallies
The next possibility is consolidation in the 57,000 to 58,500 yen range.
Even if buying comes in after a sharp drop, if investor anxiety is not completely resolved, selling on rallies may occur at higher levels.
In this case, the Nikkei 225 will likely repeat ups and downs within a certain range while waiting for the next catalyst.
At this point, such an unstable development is quite plausible.
Scenario 3: Downward trend continues
The case to be most wary of is a clear break below 57,000 yen.
If U.S. AI-related stocks fall again and selling spreads to Japanese semiconductor-related stocks, the Nikkei 225 could test the 56,000 yen level and potentially even the 55,000 yen area.
In particular, if stocks with a large contribution to the Nikkei 225, such as Advantest and Tokyo Electron, continue to fall, the impact on the index as a whole will be significant.
It is necessary to determine whether this decline is a temporary correction or the beginning of a medium-term bear market.
7. Semiconductor stock trends will determine the recovery of the Nikkei 225
In analyzing the recent sharp drop in the Nikkei 225, the trends of semiconductor-related stocks are indispensable.
I would like to pay particular attention to the following three stocks.
Advantest (6857)
This company handles inspection equipment for AI semiconductors and may benefit from the expansion in demand for AI semiconductors.
On the other hand, if investor sentiment toward AI-related stocks worsens, the stock price could fluctuate significantly.
Kioxia Holdings (285A)
This is a semiconductor manufacturer centered on NAND flash memory.
While storage demand for AI data centers can be a long-term growth factor, one should be aware that earnings fluctuate depending on memory prices and supply-demand balance.
Tokyo Electron (8035)
As a company involved in semiconductor manufacturing equipment, the capital expenditure trends of global semiconductor manufacturers are crucial.
Whether AI-related capital investment is maintained or heads toward a contraction will be the material for judging future stock prices.
Whether the stock prices of these three companies can rebound will also be an important observation point for considering the recovery of the Nikkei 225.
8. My View—Now is not the time to bet on a bottom
To summarize this analysis, the Nikkei 225 is in a phase that requires cautious judgment in both the short and medium term.
Nikkei 225 futures ended the night session at 57,400 yen, which was almost the same level as the cash Nikkei 225 closing price.
Also, looking at the moving average lines for the futures, the current price is significantly below the 5-day moving average.
The MACD is also in negative territory, and downward momentum remains.
On the other hand, the area around 57,000 yen will be a point of short-term contention.
If this level is maintained and 58,500 yen can be recovered, there is a possibility of testing a rebound to 59,000–60,000 yen.
Conversely, if it breaks below 57,000 yen and updates the recent low, we should also consider a scenario where it falls to around 55,000 yen.
I will be paying particular attention to the following three points going forward.
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Whether Nikkei 225 futures can maintain 57,000 yen.
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Whether it can recover 58,500 yen and rise to 59,000–60,000 yen.
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Whether US semiconductor stocks and Japan’s Advantest and Kioxia can rebound.
When stock prices fall significantly, it is important not to buy just because they have become cheaper, but to confirm whether the cause of the decline has been resolved.
Is this sharp decline something that damages long-term growth expectations, or is it due to a short-term deterioration in investor sentiment?
The answer to that will likely appear in the future trends of the US market and corporate earnings.
To judge that the Nikkei 225 has truly bottomed out, I want to confirm not only a rebound in futures but also a rise in lows in the cash market and a recovery of the moving average lines.
