Wednesday, November 11, 2026
Japanese stocks rose significantly again today.
The Nikkei 225 closed at 61,248.59 yen, up 789.01 yen from the previous day. The TOPIX also ended the trading session at 3,929.39 points, up 35.68 points.
This marks the third consecutive trading day of gains for the Nikkei 225.
As if last week’s massive crash were a lie, stock prices are rising once again.
However, for me, this continues to be an extremely difficult market.
This is because AI and semiconductor-related stocks, which I thought would weaken, are rising contrary to my expectations.
And there is another big topic today.
It is the IPO of Anthropic, which is scheduled to list soon.
Actually, I was offered this IPO by an IFA (Independent Financial Advisor).
However, I decided to pass on the application.
I would like to write about the reason for that today as well.
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■ The Japanese stock market rose for the 3rd consecutive day today!
First, let’s look back at today’s market.
【November 11 Market Close】
* Nikkei 225: 61,248.59 yen (+789.01 yen, +1.31%)
* TOPIX: 3,929.39 (+35.68, +0.92%)
* TSE Prime trading value: approx. 8.6968 trillion yen
* TSE Prime trading volume: approx. 2.71951 billion shares
Today was another strong day for semiconductor-related stocks.
Advantest (6857), Tokyo Electron (8035), Kioxia Holdings (285A), and Disco (6146) rose.
On the other hand, KDDI (9433), Sony Group (6758), and Honda Motor (7267) fell.
Of course, not all defensive stocks went down.
However, my impression is that funds are shifting away from stocks that were relatively stable until recently and back toward AI and semiconductor-related stocks with high volatility.
The question is how long this trend will last.
■ Was last week’s massive crash a selling climax?
This is the point I am most concerned about right now.
Was last week’s sharp decline a so-called “selling climax”?
A selling climax refers to a phase where investors’ panic selling and loss-cutting are concentrated, causing stock prices to plummet accompanied by high volume.
After that, selling pressure weakens, and it can turn into a major rebound.
However, just because it rebounded significantly does not necessarily mean it has bottomed out.
The same is true this time.
After the sharp decline on November 6, it rose for three consecutive trading days: the 9th, 10th, and 11th.
With it having recovered this much, one might want to consider the possibility that the decline was the temporary bottom.
However, what I am wary of is a “double bottom.”
It falls sharply once, then rebounds rapidly.
Just when investors feel relieved, selling intensifies again, and it falls back toward the previous low.
Such price movements are not uncommon in the market.
Therefore, I do not intend to be optimistic yet.
I believe the price movements for the remaining two trading days of this week, Thursday and Friday, are extremely important.
■ I misread the rise in AI and semiconductor stocks
Both yesterday and today, I personally thought that AI and semiconductor-related stocks would weaken temporarily.
This is because the recent stock price fluctuations were too intense.
After a sharp decline, they would be sold again after a slight recovery.
I was anticipating such a development.
However, in reality, semiconductor-related stocks are strong.
They are moving in a direction completely different from my expectations.
In times like these, day trading becomes difficult.
Stocks I don’t think will rise keep rising.
Even if I think about buying midway, they have already risen significantly.
The fear that they might fall the moment I buy them starts to emerge.
I have been burned many times before by AI and semiconductor-related stocks with high volatility.
That is why I have recently been looking at relatively calm large-cap stocks and defensive stocks.
But now, those stocks are weakening, and the semiconductor-related stocks I was avoiding are rising.
Things just don’t go as planned.
However, I think the important thing here is not to cling to my own predictions.
It is not that the market is wrong, but that my perspective does not match the market’s movements.
It is necessary to accept that fact.
■ How will the market move tomorrow and the day after?
I am considering three scenarios for the remaining two trading days of this week.
① The rise in AI and semiconductor-related stocks continues
This is the strongest scenario.
If buying continues for Advantest, Tokyo Electron, etc., it is possible that the Nikkei 225 will test even higher levels.
In particular, if the base of rising stocks expands and the TOPIX also becomes as strong as the Nikkei 225, it will be easier to evaluate this as a recovery of the entire market.
② Funds move from AI/semiconductors to defensive stocks
This is what I am personally paying attention to.
Semiconductor-related stocks have been strong for the past few days, and there are also relatively weak stocks.
As a reaction to that, there is a possibility that profit-taking selling will occur in semiconductor-related stocks, and domestic demand stocks or defensive stocks will be bought back.
If that happens, even if the Nikkei 225’s rise is small, there might be opportunities to aim for profits in individual stocks.
③ A major decline begins again
This is the scenario I am most wary of.
If the rise so far has been merely an autonomous rebound, there is a possibility that selling pressure will intensify again.
Especially if AI-related stocks are sold off all at once, the Nikkei 225 will move significantly.
For the remaining two days of this week, I want to check not only stock prices but also volume, trading value, and the number of rising stocks.
For my part, I want to trade after confirming the market’s direction rather than forcing myself to guess it.
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■ I was offered the Anthropic IPO by an IFA, but I declined
From here on, it’s another topic.
The IPO of the AI company Anthropic is approaching.
Anthropic is the company that developed the generative AI “Claude.”
According to a Reuters report on November 10, the IPO price range is $70 to $78 per share. It aims to raise up to approximately $64.4 billion, and a Nasdaq listing is scheduled for November 19.
The planned ticker symbol is “ANT.”
This time, I was offered an investment in this IPO by an IFA.
However, I decided to pass on the application.
Of course, I think there is a possibility that it will rise significantly.
Generative AI will continue to be a very large market, and Anthropic is one of the companies at its center.
However, what I am concerned about is not the company’s future potential, but rather to what extent the stock price at the time of the IPO already incorporates future growth.
Just because it is a good company does not mean the stock price will rise.
No matter how high the growth potential is, if you buy it at an extremely high valuation from the start, there is a possibility that you will not get the expected profit.
I feel this even when looking at the recent price movements of AI and semiconductor-related stocks.
Even if they announce good earnings, the stock price falls.
Conversely, it rises significantly just because the view on performance has changed slightly.
That must mean the market’s expectations are that high and stock price fluctuations are that intense.
I judged that there is no need for me to take on that risk right now.
■ Looking at the SpaceX IPO, price movements after listing are difficult
In June of this year, SpaceX listed on the Nasdaq.
SpaceX began trading under the ticker symbol “SPCX” on June 12.
Such ultra-large IPOs attract a lot of attention even before listing.
However, expectations before listing and stock price performance after listing are separate issues.
Regarding Anthropic as well, there is a possibility that it will be bought up all at once after listing.
On the other hand, if it is judged that the valuation at the time of the IPO is too high, there is also a possibility that it will fall significantly due to profit-taking selling or a re-evaluation.
This time, rather than participating in the IPO and aiming for the initial rise, I want to judge after watching the price movements after listing.
There might be investment opportunities even after the stock price settles down after listing and I can confirm the performance and valuation.
Of course, there is a possibility that it will rise significantly immediately after listing and become difficult to buy later.
In that case, it cannot be helped.
Profit not taken is not a loss.
Rather than the possibility of making a large profit, I want to avoid the risk of losing a large amount right now.
Based on my investment experience so far, that is my judgment.
■ M&A, real estate investment, and day trading are, after all, different things
I have managed multiple companies so far and have experienced various investments such as M&A and real estate investment.
Regarding real estate investment, the total investment amount in the past is about 6 billion yen.
However, when it comes to day trading, it’s a different story.
I think analyzing corporate value to acquire a company and predicting the stock price a few minutes later are completely different skills.
Even with experience in management and M&A, it does not mean I can easily win at day trading.
Rather, precisely because I have past investment experience, I need to be careful not to become overconfident.
I have failed before by investing large amounts of money.
Therefore, in day trading, I prioritize acquiring the skill first.
The important thing is not to win big once, but to create a method that can consistently leave a profit.
I intend to continue with that way of thinking without changing it.
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■ Today’s day trading results and the countdown to 10 billion yen
Today’s realized profit/loss is,
+11,640 yen
The cumulative realized profit/loss up to the previous day was +234,892 yen.
Therefore, the cumulative total up to today is,
234,892 yen + 11,640 yen = 246,532 yen
And the remainder to the goal of 10 billion yen is,
10,000,000,000 yen – 246,532 yen
= 9,999,753,468 yen
I have handled a total of about 6 billion yen in real estate investment and hundreds of millions in M&A, but today’s day trading profit is 11,640 yen.
As someone aiming for 10 billion yen, it is quite a cute amount.
The man aiming for 10 billion yen, today’s profit +11,640 yen.
Cumulative profit +246,532 yen.
To 10 billion yen, remaining 9,999,753,468 yen.
The road is still long, but I will proceed one step at a time.
Predicting the market is difficult. Or rather, one should not predict it.
Especially in a market like now, where common sense from yesterday no longer applies the next day, I feel that even more.
However, I have also learned many things since starting day trading.
How to respond when my prediction is wrong.
Whether I can make the decision not to buy.
How to balance increasing profits and suppressing losses.
The same goes for the Anthropic IPO.
The possibility of obtaining a large profit is attractive, but for now, I will pass without rushing.
The market will be there tomorrow too. Opportunities should come again.
See you tomorrow!
※ Market data is as of the market close on November 11, 2026. The outlook for the next business day and beyond is a personal observation.
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