Indian equity markets are likely to open on a flat to negative note on Monday due to the volatility caused by US President Donald Trump. Analysts expect the market to move on a cautious note.
World stocks and equity futures tumbled sharply after Trump on Friday threatened an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods, slated to take effect on November 1. That would bring duties on imports from China to 130%. However, on Sunday afternoon, Trump hinted that he may not follow through with his tariff threat, posting on Truth Social that “it will all be fine!”
In an X post, he said, “The USA wants to help China, not hurt it!!!” Trump said in Sunday’s post on Truth Social, adding that “respected President Xi (Jinping)… doesn’t want Depression for his country.”
US stock futures and equities across the Asia Pacific region have both recovered sharply following the statement.
Gift Nifty futures are also ruling at 25,330 against Friday’s Nifty futures close of 25,411. However, it recovered from the day’s low level of 25,210 following Trump’s clarification post.
Analysts expect the focus will shift to the ongoing Q2 results season and the management outlook.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said: Indian equities are expected to open lower as investor sentiment turns cautious after the US announced a 100% tariff on all Chinese goods effective November 1, rekindling fears of a renewed trade war. Although President Trump later softened his stance, saying the US does not intend to “hurt China,” which led to a recovery in US stock futures, investor caution persists amid renewed global uncertainty, he said.
“ Beyond the immediate volatility, investors are likely to stay focused on key catalysts such as Q2 earnings, domestic CPI inflation, and US inflation data, which could shape near-term market sentiment. While global uncertainty continues to weigh on risk appetite, easing crude oil prices and strong festive demand are seen as supportive factors for Indian equities. Major IPOs such as Tata Capital and LG Electronics India have witnessed robust investor demand, reflecting strong market confidence, abundant domestic liquidity, and unwavering retail investor enthusiasm,” he further said.
Meanwhile, foreign portfolio investors have turned buyers last week. The cash market buy figure during the last four trading sessions stands at Rs 3289 crores.
“Though the amount is not significant, the shift in the FPI trading strategy is significant. It stems from two factors: One, the valuation differentials between India and other markets, which were high earlier, had come down significantly in recent weeks following the rally in other markets and consolidation in the Indian market. Two, the growth and earnings prospects for India have been revised upward by market experts. The GST cuts and the low interest regime are expected to boost India Inc’s earnings in FY27, which the market will soon start discounting,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.
Published on October 13, 2025
