A steady hold above $59.23 keeps a slight upside bias alive and puts the 50-day moving average at $59.86 back in focus. That indicator has stopped every rally since late October, making it the first real test for anyone looking to press the long side. A clean break would shift attention to the 200-day moving average at $61.01, which remains the next major marker on traders’ charts.
On the downside, slipping back under $59.23 would expose the 61.8% retracement at $58.44. Buyers will need to show up there to keep the current upside setup intact. If they don’t, the path opens toward the recent swing low at $57.10—the last area where value buyers stepped in.
Ukraine Strike Adds Fresh Supply Risk in Crude Oil News Today
Geopolitical risk returned to the front end of the curve after Ukraine hit Russia’s Druzhba pipeline in the Tambov region—the fifth strike on that system supplying Hungary and Slovakia. Operators reported flows were still running, but the repeated hits were enough to nudge crude higher in early trade.
Kpler noted that Ukraine’s drone operations on Russian refining assets have shifted into repeated cycles aimed at keeping key facilities offline. Russian refining throughput dropped to about 5 million barrels per day from September through November, down 335,000 bpd year-on-year. Gasoline output has taken the biggest hit, with gasoil also materially softer.
Do Stalled Peace Talks Change the Oil Prices Forecast?
Talks between U.S. representatives and the Kremlin produced no progress, with President Donald Trump saying there’s no clear path forward. Traders previously priced in the possibility that a deal could ease sanctions and push more Russian barrels onto an already heavy market. With no breakthrough, that pressure has faded, helping crude stabilize.
Oil Prices Projections Face a Weigh from Fitch
Fitch Ratings cut its 2025–2027 oil price assumptions, citing continued oversupply and production growth expected to run ahead of demand. The downgrade underscores the broader fundamental drag still hanging over the market.
