Marty Party, a prominent crypto commentator with 240,000 followers on X (formerly Twitter), said:
“This marks a major expansion of regulated crypto derivatives beyond Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), providing institutions with sophisticated hedging tools amid surging demand for altcoin exposure.”
While conditions appear favorable for an XRP-spot ETF market, the US Government shutdown continues to indirectly delay institutional inflows by slowing SEC processing.
US Senate Takes Center Stage as Shutdown Enters Day 14
On Tuesday, October 14, all eyes will turn to Capitol Hill. The US Senate could hold a vote on a stopgap funding bill as early as today, potentially reopening the US government.
A return to a full SEC office could enable the agency to review and approve the recently amended S-1s, clearing the way for spot ETF issuers to begin trading.
However, reports from Capitol Hill suggest a continued impasse, raising the risk that the shutdown extends into November. Republican Speaker Mike Johnson reportedly stated:
“We’re barreling toward one of the longest shutdowns in American history.”
Johnson has stated that he would not negotiate with the Democrats until they withdraw their health care demands.
Betting platform Kalshi predicts the US government shutdown will last 33 days, down from 37 days, but close to the 35-day shutdown in 2018-2019, the longest in US history. Furthermore, Kalshi puts the odds of the shutdown extending into November at 57%.
The delay of XRP-spot ETF launches beyond their final decision deadlines, ranging from October 18 to November 14, could weigh on XRP prices. However, speculation about an imminent launch could intensify if the Senate passes a stopgap funding bill, potentially sending XRP to $3.
Price Action & Technical Analysis: Will XRP Hold $2.5?
XRP climbed 2.99% on Monday, October 13, following the previous day’s 6.1% rally, closing at $2.6073. The token outperformed the broader market, which gained 0.97%. Despite a three-day winning streak, XRP remained below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), reaffirming a bearish bias.
Key technical levels to watch include:
- Support levels: $2.5, $2.0, and $1.9.
- Technical resistance levels: the 200-day EMA at $2.6351 and the 50-day EMA at $2.8508.
- Resistance levels: $2.7 and $3.0.
Catalysts & Scenarios
In the coming sessions, several key events could dictate near-term price trends:
- US-China trade developments.
- The US government shutdown.
- XRP ETF news (delays or launches) and BlackRock’s stance on an iShares XRP Trust.
- Blue-chip companies increase interest in XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
- Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the Market Structure Bill, and SWIFT-related news could also drive near-term price trends.
Bearish Scenario: Risks Below $2.5
- BlackRock pours cold water on hopes for an XRP-spot ETF.
- US Senate gridlock continues, delaying XRP-spot ETF approvals.
- Lawmakers block crypto-friendly regulations, including the Market Structure Bill.
- Blue-chip companies show no interest in XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
- OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s US-chartered bank license.
- SWIFT maintains its market share in the global remittance market, limiting Ripple’s market access.
These bearish scenarios could drag XRP back toward $2.5. A break below $2.5 would expose $2.0.
Bullish Scenario: Path to $3
- US and China trade tensions ease.
- Senate passage of a stopgap funding bill.
- BlackRock files an S-1 for an iShares XRP Trust, and the SEC green-lights XRP-spot ETFs.
- Blue-chip companies purchase XRP for treasury purposes, and more payment platforms integrate Ripple technology.
- Ripple secures a US-chartered bank license, and the Senate passes the Market Structure Bill.
- Ripple makes inroads into the global remittance business at SWIFT’s expense.
These bullish scenarios could drive XRP to $2.7 and bring the key psychological resistance at $3 level.
