Nasdaq, S&P 500 slide to kick off shortened week with AI fears in focus

Corporate profits are rising while labor income keeps falling, a sign that so-called “K-shaped” movements in the economy are continuing, analysts for Bank of America wrote on Tuesday.

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the analysts wrote, an increasing amount of economic data has pointed toward an uptick in productivity. However, the economic gains from that productivity seem to be aggregating in corporate profits, while wages steadily fall.

This split between profits and income is consistent and being reinforced by the rally in financial as well as real assets, which are more concentrated among higher- and middle-income households,” the analysts wrote. The dichotomy in the data also “begs the question of whether these are real improvements in labor productivity.

“It remains to be seen whether wages and salaries recoup some of their lost ground relative to corporate profits,” the analysts wrote. “But for now, higher profits relative to wages are yet another driver of a K-shaped economy, as higher-income consumers tend to be more exposed.”

US stocks opened Tuesday’s session split, as the tech sector continued its downturn in a sign that investor concerns about AI disruption aren’t yet settling.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led losses, shedding roughly 0.5%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) lost a thinner 0.2%. Meanwhile, the blue-chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), which is less exposed to the tech sector, rose roughly 0.3% before paring gains.

Fourth-quarter results from Walmart (WMT), a recent member of the the trillion-dollar market cap club, on Thursday will highlight the week’s earnings calendar. Constellation Energy (CEG), Energy Transfer (ET), Medtronic (MDT), and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) will also report this week, all on Tuesday.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures index and an advance read on fourth-quarter GDP, both on Friday, will dominate investor attention on the economic calendar. Investors will also get meetings from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting on Wednesday.

Shares in consumer food giant General Mills (GIS) fell by more than 3.3% in premarket trading after the company lowered its 2026 sales outlook. “Weak consumer sentiment, heightened uncertainty, and significant volatility have weighed on category growth and impacted consumer purchase patterns” contributed to the dour outlook, the company said.

General Mills is now projecting organic net sales of -1.5% to -2%, down from a previous range of -1% to 1%. Adjusted operating profit and adjusted diluted earnings per share are now expected at a range of -16% to -20%, down from a previously stated range of -10% to -15%.

“While the company is making meaningful progress in strengthening its remarkability to position the business for long-term sustainable growth, this progress has come amid a more challenging backdrop,” General Mills said in its statement.

While General Mills has managed to return roughly 4% since the beginning of the year, the company’s shares are down more than 18% over the past year. Meanwhile, an index tracking the consumer staples sector (XLP) has returned 15% year to date and roughly 10% since the same time last year.

Paramount Skydance (PSKY) stock is moving higher after Warner Bros. (WBD) agreed to reopen acquisition discussions.

The move comes after Paramount proposed a new all-cash offer last week of $30 per share to acquire the entire company. That offer came with a $ 0.25-per-share “ticking fee” — under which Warner Bros.’ shareholders would receive $0.25 per share each quarter until the transaction is not closed beyond the end of this year.

Paramount also floated an informal acquisition proposal for $31 a share, WBD said.

The new window for discussions will last seven days, ending on Feb. 23, 2026, “to seek clarity for Warner Bros. stockholders and provide Paramount the ability to make its best and final offer.”

In the release, Warner Bros. Chair Samuel A. Di Piazza said the board of directors said it still suggests the Netflix offer, worth some $82.7 billion, which does not include the entire business.

“The Netflix merger is in the best interests of WBD shareholders due to the tremendous value it provides” with a “clear path to achieve regulatory approval,” he said in the release.

Paramount’s current offer of $30 per share values the whole company at $108.4 billion.

Netflix’s co-CEO Ted Sarandos testified before the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee last week, negating claims that it would lead to a monopoly, or higher prices for consumers.

DTE Energy (DTE) stock rose as much as 10% before paring gains. The energy company is due to release its earnings before the bell today, and the stock has risen 13% over the past year.

Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) stock rose 7% during premarket trading on Tuesday after activist investor Elliott built a stake in the company.

Strategy (MSTR) stock fell 3% before the bell today. The company, which is one of the largest corporate holders of bitcoin, has been struggling recently due to the sell-off with the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

A growing number on Wall Street are assessing the recent AI sell-offs. And despite many fearing the bubble has burst, for stock pickers, now might be the time for them to get greedy.

Bloomberg News reports:

Read more here.

Nothing like a BofA fund manager survey drop the day after a market holiday.

Lots of great nuggets in the one out this morning, but the chart below stood out to me. So many on the Street I talk with expect a very robust economy this spring, in part because of expectations for a strong tax refund season.

Goes a long way in explaining the hot small-caps trade.

Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) stock rose 6% before the bell on Tuesday following a report from The Wall Street Journal that activist investor Elliott has built a 10% stake in the company and plans to push for changes.

Elliott has become one of the cruise line’s top investors and is keen to fix the company’s underperformance. Elliott has so far built stakes in Southwest Airlines (LUV), as well as oil refiner Phillips 66 (PSX) and Toyota Industries (TYIDY). According to The Wall Street Journal, Elliott has over $79 billion in assets under management and is concerned about Norwegian Cruise Line’s financial performance.

The Wall Street Journal:

Read more here.

Nvidia (NVDA) has a very high bar to clear to appease investors when it reports earnings on February 25.

Citi this morning points to a few important things to keep in mind ahead of time:

“Key Investor Topics — a) Higher component costs impact to expected mid 70s percentage gross margins; b) updates on Anthropic/OpenAI investments; c) inference competition, and d) impact of the Groq licensing agreement on Nvidia’s product roadmap.”