Burhan Sansarlioglu, Emirhan Yilmaz, and Emir Yildirim
03 July 2026•Update: 03 July 2026
Precious metals saw sharp declines in the first six months of the year amid persistent expectations that the Fed would hike rates in the aftermath of the US-Israel-Iran war, which sent shockwaves through energy markets and fueled global inflationary pressures.
Investors sought safe havens amid the escalating geopolitical risks, turning to greenbacks, driving up bond yields, and placing additional pressure on commodity prices.
The Fed was widely expected to raise rates twice by the end of the year, having signaled potential rate hikes and upwardly revised inflation forecasts. Hawkish expectations made up the primary cause of the sharp decline across precious metal prices.
Fed chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability in recent statements eased concerns over the bank’s independence, leading to selling pressure on precious metals, especially gold.
Gold started the year at $4,313 per ounce, surging to a record high of $5,600 in January, ending February at $5,263 per ounce, up 8.5%. Gold reversed course, falling as low as $4,099 in March, ending the month at $4,667 per ounce, down 11.32%, marking the sharpest monthly drop since the 2008 financial crisis.
Gold lost 1% in April and another 1.77% in May, closing the month at $4,540 per ounce, while after falling 11.7% in June, gold dropped 7.1% in the first half to $4,007 per ounce.
Silver was even more sensitive to global growth concerns due to its widespread use in industrial applications, ending the first half with a whopping 17.4% loss.
Silver hit a record high of $121.7 per ounce in January, after starting the year at $71, closing the first month of the year with a 17.2% increase to $83.3 per ounce. Silver rose 12.6% in February to $93.8 per ounce, but then dropped as low as $61 in March, closing the month down 19.9% at $75.1 and down 1.8% at $73.7 per ounce in April.
Silver rebounded at the end of May with a 2.1% rise to $75.3 per ounce, but it dropped 22.1% to $58.7 in June amid the broader market volatility, ending the first half with a 17.4% decline.
Meanwhile, the platinum market is expecting a surplus in the first half of the year due to an increase in mine production and a decline in investment demand, according to the World Platinum Investment Council.
Platinum also suffered from geopolitical risks and strengthening greenbacks, starting with a record high of $2,923.3 per ounce in January, ending the month with a 6.2% rise at $2,182.2, closing February at an 8.5% increase at $2,366.5, and sharply declining in March by 17.2% to $1,960.1 per ounce.
Platinum rose 1.6% in April to $1,991.4 but fell again in May to $1,922.6, closing June at $1,443, down 19.2%, and closing the half with a 24.4% decline.
Structural changes in China’s auto sector and a shift towards electric vehicles (EVs) dampened long-term demand expectations for palladium, driving its ounce price to drop by a staggering 24.2% over the six-month period.
Palladium started the year at $1,603 per ounce, rose 7% to $1,713.3 in January and climbed 4.4% to $1,788.7 in February. After falling 17% to $1,484.8 in March, the ounce price of palladium rebounded slightly in April, rising 3.3% to $1,533.9.
Palladium fell 11.4% to $1,359.6 in May and dropped by 10.8% to $1,212 in June.
Zafer Ergezen, a futures and commodities expert, told Anadolu that the expectations for a silver price rebound faded as high inflation dampened global growth projections.
Ergezen said silver is facing massive selling pressure and any price rallies will likely result in profit-taking until rate cuts resume or expectations for rate cuts come to the fore.
He noted that the $50-55 range could be a strong support level for silver, while sustained upward movements are highly unlikely in the short term with bond yields continuing to rise and the US Dollar Index remaining strong, which means any upward momentum in precious metals will be limited.
