Wheat futures came under sustained pressure during the week as weak export demand, fund selling and the prospect of increasing supplies outweighed persistent Black Sea risks, while alternative Russian export routes reduced the market’s sensitivity to disruptions in the region.
The bearish tone emerged on Monday amid weakness across the wider grains complex, as US wheat export inspections fell by 22% week on week to 240,308 tonnes in the week to October 15, while cumulative 2026/27 inspections were 36% below year-earlier levels.
Fund positioning also weighed on sentiment, with managed money holding a net short position of 33,038 contracts in Chicago soft red winter (SRW) wheat, while traders reduced their net long position in Kansas City hard red winter (HRW) wheat by 6,649 contracts, according to data released on Friday October 16 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Harvest pressure from the Southern Hemisphere added to the bearish backdrop, with new-crop supplies from Argentina and Australia becoming increasingly available to importers and adding competition to an already well-supplied international market.
Meanwhile, geopolitical risks in the Black Sea remained supportive but failed to reverse the broader downward trend. Renewed diplomatic efforts between Russia, Ukraine and the US added further pressure to futures during the week as the market priced in the possibility of improved grain flows if tensions eased.
In the cash markets, South Korea’s KOFMIA purchased around 50,000 tonnes of US-origin milling wheat for shipment on March 1-31, 2027, in a tender concluded on October 23. CJ International sold the cargo at flat prices, comprising 15,970 tonnes of soft white winter (SWW) wheat at $245.47 per tonne FOB, 10,295 tonnes of HRW wheat at $283.77 per tonne FOB, and 23,735 tonnes of northern spring (NS) wheat at $299.85 per tonne FOB.
The purchase was split among five millers: Daehan bought 16,840 tonnes, Samyang 13,965 tonnes, CJ 10,645 tonnes, Daesun 7,155 tonnes and Samhwa 1,395 tonnes.
Australian grain markets softened this week as harvest activity continued to pick up in Western Australia, bringing increasing volumes of new-crop grain into the market. Early harvest results have generally been encouraging, while expectations for a sizeable crop kept pressure on nearby values.
Weather remained a key focus, with dry conditions helping harvest progress in the west, while rainfall across parts of eastern Australia slowed fieldwork and kept some uncertainty around the pace of harvest.
Fastmarkets’ daily price assessment for wheat 10.5% FOB Australia W APW fell by $1 to $298 per tonne for November loading on Thursday, while wheat 9.5% FOB Australia W ASW fell by $2 to $289 per tonne in Western Australia.
Ukraine’s wheat market
Trading activity in Ukraine’s wheat market was limited throughout the week, with subdued buying interest and logistical challenges continuing to weigh on export opportunities. Security risks affecting Black Sea shipping, high transportation costs and limited capacity on alternative export routes continued to undermine the competitiveness of Ukrainian wheat. Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials warned that wheat planting areas could decline by 15-17% in 2027 to 4.0-4.2 million hectares, raising concerns over future production potential.
Fastmarkets’ assessment for Wheat 11.5% FOB Danube Ukraine fell by $2.50 per tonne week on week to $191.50 per tonne on Thursday, while the assessment for Wheat FOB Danube Ukraine Feed wheat fell by $4 per tonne to $177 per tonne.
In Russia, wheat export activity remained limited during the week, despite signs of a partial recovery in shipments through the Azov-Black Sea basin following the resumption of some operations at Novorossiysk. Export flows continued to shift toward Baltic ports, although high inland transportation costs and limited rail capacity constrained shipments and affected the competitiveness of Russian wheat in international markets. Meanwhile, ample domestic supplies and high grain inventories continued to weigh on Russian wheat prices.
Fastmarkets’ assessment for Wheat 12.5%, fob Russian Baltic remained at $268 per tonne, while Wheat 11.5%, fob Russian Baltic, also held steady at $260 per tonne.
In the EU Black Sea region, Constanta-Varna-Burgas (CVB) wheat prices remained supported this week by persistent Black Sea security risks and concerns over export logistics. A new drone attack on a cargo vessel near Romania on October 23, which reportedly sank the ship, further heightened concerns over shipping safety and potential disruptions to grain exports. Meanwhile, continued demand from international buyers, including Egypt, provided additional support to regional wheat prices.
Fastmarkets’ assessment for wheat 11.5% FOB Constanta-Varna-Burgas (CVB) fell by $11.00 per tonne week on week to $281.50 per tonne on Thursday for loading in December, whilewheat 12.5% FOB Constanta/Varna/Burgas was $290.00 per tonne, down by $9.00 per tonne, and feed wheat FOB Constanta/Varna/Burgas was $254.75 per tonne, down by $5.00 per tonne.
European wheat markets came under pressure this week, with a sharp sell-off in Euronext futures dragging outright FOB values lower across the main export regions. European futures followed broader weakness across international wheat markets, with fund selling adding to the downward momentum.
Physical markets were comparatively subdued, with limited fresh buying interest and much of the movement in outright prices driven by the weaker futures market. German 12.5% protein wheat maintained a premium over Baltic and Polish material, although values across all three origins moved lower.
Competitive global wheat availability continued to weigh on the European market, limiting sellers’ ability to resist the decline in futures. Still, the physical market appeared less volatile than the underlying futures move, with the focus remaining on export demand and whether lower outright values could stimulate additional buying interest.
Fastmarkets’ price assessment for wheat 11% FOB France was $269.75 per tonne on October 22, down by $2 per tonne from $271.75 per tonne on October 21.
Fastmarkets’ price assessment for wheat 12.5% FOB Baltic was $268 per tonne on October 22, down by $2 per tonne from $270 per tonne on October 21.
Fastmarkets’ price assessment for wheat 12.5% FOB Poland was $268 per tonne on October 22, down by $2 per tonne from $270 per tonne on October 21.
Fastmarkets’ price assessment for wheat 12.5% FOB Germany was $272 per tonne on October 22, down by $2 per tonne from $274 per tonne on October 21.
Across North America, cash premiums similarly held unchanged against weaker futures. US Gulf HRW remained at 150 cents per bushel over December Kansas City futures for November and December shipment, while US Gulf SRW premiums ended the period at 100 cents per bushel (bu) for November and 105 cents per bu for December. Canadian CWRS premiums rose early in the week to 140 cents per bu over December MIAX and remained at that level through Thursday.
Argentina also contributed to the increasingly competitive global supply outlook, with expectations for a large 2026/27 crop and increasing new-crop availability weighing on prices. December and January 11.5% protein wheat FOB Argentina were assessed at $247 and $248 per tonne, respectively, earlier in the week, before Argentine cash values fell by more than $5 per tonne on Thursday October 22, following the selloff in futures.
Corn cash premiums were mixed across markets, while futures declined on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) amid the harvest progress, favorable weather and a decline in US inspections.
The front-month December corn contract fell by 2.89% on the CME since Friday October 16, closing at $4.60 per bushel on Thursday October 22.
US corn harvest advanced to 44%, up from 33% the previous week, but remained below the five-year average of 52%, according to the USDA’s crop progress report. Crop condition was rated 56% good to excellent, unchanged from the previous week.
The weather has been favorable for harvest in the US Corn Belt and should remain dry until Tuesday October 27, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast shows.
US corn export inspections fell by 49% to 672,475 tonnes in the week ended Thursday October 15, compared with 1.31 million tonnes the previous week, according to USDA data.
Weekly losses were limited by US corn net sales for the 2026/27 crop year, which totaled 1.52 million tonnes in the week to October 15, up by 36% from the previous week and by 87% from the four-week average, according to data released by the USDA on Thursday October 22.
Korea Feed Association (KFA) Busan bought 65,000 tonnes of corn for February arrival on October 16 via a private deal with Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC), paying $278.99 per tonne CFR South Korea inclusive of the second port discharge.
Feed Leaders Committee bought 65,000 tonnes of corn for January 20 arrival on October 20 via a private deal with Pan Ocean, paying $268.74 per tonne plus $1.25 per tonne.
MFIG Taiwan bought 65,000 tonnes of corn via a tender, paying Cargill a premium of 214.78 cents per bushel over March CME corn futures, with corn to be loaded from Brazil.
In both Argentina and Brazil, summer corn sowing continues to progress, with corn planting standing at 39.8% of the projected 8.4 million hectares in Argentina, following a week-on-week increase of 5 percentage points, Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) said in its weekly report.
Brazil’s 2026/27 summer corn planting reached 36% of the projected area of 4.54 million hectares, compared with 33.5% a week earlier, 35.3% a year earlier and a five-year average of 35.6%, national food agency Conab said in its weekly crop progress report.
European Black Sea corn prices moved higher during the week despite sluggish trading activity, with no Handysize business reported. Meanwhile, Bulgaria’s corn production had nearly doubled year on year to 1.5 million tonnes as of October 15, according to data published by the country’s agriculture ministry on October 21. Average yields rose significantly, offsetting a decline in harvested area.
Fastmarkets’ assessment for Corn FOB CVB rose by €2 over the week to €245 per tonne.
In Ukraine, corn prices remained under pressure during the week as harvesting progressed and domestic supplies increased, while export opportunities remained constrained. At the same time, demand in western Ukraine was supported by competition between domestic consumers and exporters redirecting shipments toward western border crossings. Concerns over lower-than-expected yields provided some support to the market, with Ukrainian officials indicating that the 2026 corn production forecast could be revised downward from 30 million tonnes. Meanwhile, farmers could reduce corn planting areas by as much as 50% in 2027, raising concerns over future production and export potential.
Fastmarkets’ assessment for Corn FOB Danube Ukraine fell by $5.50 over the week to $176.50 per tonne.
In the Americas physical market, basis was mixed in the US and higher in South America, following lower CME futures.
The November corn FOB US Gulf premium rose by 1 cent per bu to 95 cents per bu over December CME futures as of October 22 from October 16. November corn FOB US Gulf outright price fell by $5 to $218.75 per tonne.
In the Pacific Northwest, the November corn FOB US PNW premium held steady at 127 cents per bu over December CME futures as of October 22 from October 16. November corn FOB US PNW outright price fell by $5 per tonne to $231.25 per tonne in the same period.
The November corn FOB Argentina premium in the Upriver hub rose by 10 cents per bu to 85 cents per bu over December CME futures as of October 22 from October 16. Fastmarkets’ assessment for November corn FOB Argentina flat prices fell by $1.50 per tonne to $214.75 per tonne over the same period.
The November corn FOB Brazil premium in the Port of Santos rose by 4 cents per bu to 94 cents per bu over the December CME contract from October 16 to October 22. The corn FOB Brazil outright price dropped by $4 per tonne to $218.25 per tonne during the same period.
At least three cargoes were heard to have been traded this week. In the Port of Santos, a November last-half cargo was heard to have been traded at 92 cents per bu over December futures. In the Northern Arc, a November last-half cargo was heard traded at 100 cents per bu in the Port of Barcarena and a December first-half cargo at 105 cents per bu in the Port of Itaqui, all over December CME futures.
The November corn FOB Brazil Northern Arc premium rose by 1 cent per bu to 93 cents per bu over December CME futures as of October 22, while corn FOB Brazil Northern Arc outright prices fell by $5 per tonne to $218 per tonne over the same period.
Activity in soybean cash markets remained strong on fresh US purchases by state-owned Chinese buyers and fresh Brazilian new-crop deals by commercial crushers.
More soybeans from the US were fixed for shipping in October from the US Gulf instead of the US Pacific Northwest. Stock levels of soybean meal and imported soybean stocks in China remained above last year and the three-year average, according to data published by the National Food & Strategic Reserves Data Centre (NFSRDC) on Tuesday October 20. Near-term Chinese crush margins for importing Brazilian and US soybeans continued to hover in negative territory.
According to Fastmarkets’ tracking, China has purchased around 16.6-17 million tonnes of US soybeans since early July, for loading from October 2026 to March 2027. That brings China to close to 70% of its 25 million tonne purchase commitment.
At least 20 cargoes were heard to have been purchased over the week, of which four cargoes were loading from the US, down from 30 cargoes last week. However, more cargoes from the US were said to have been concluded, as state-owned buyer COFCO was inquiring about US soybeans, although the information was not readily available in the market. The USDA reported close to one million tonnes of soybeans sold to China under its 24-hour system since Monday.
CME futures slid more than the slight rise in soybean CFR China premiums from the cheapest origin, Brazil, week on week, underpinning a drop in outright prices. The November premium from the cheapest origin was assessed at $3.15 per bu on Friday October 22, up by 5 cents per bu from $3.10 per bu on Friday October 16, while outright prices slid to $580 per tonne from $587 per tonne during the same period.
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