Grains ended solidly higher Wednesday, with livestock and milk futures lower.
Grains See Strong Technical Close
The grain markets fought off early weakness on Wednesday to close near the highs of the day and stage a strong technical close according to Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing. He says futures are right into resistance areas but look like they could be on the verge of a breakout. “I think funds and speculative buyers are looking at the prospects of lower yields in corn and soybeans, a China trade deal and the see grains are undervalued, so the money is coming into the market,” he explains.
Grain Markets Position Ahead of USDA Reports
Corn and soybeans are also positioning ahead of the first USDA data in a month with ideas of lower corn and soybean yields with the lack of consistency across the Corn Belt and a dry finish to the season Doherty says. Trade estimates peg corn yields around 183 to 184 and soybeans yields at 53 bushels per acre.
However, he’s not sure USDA will reflect that in their November data because they ran out of time to collect data and gather farmer yield surveys and other objective data with the government closed. “This is just my guess but I think they could make slight revisions and then come back and change the crop production estimates in December. They don’t normally do that but under the circumstances its possible.” he explains.
Soybeans Shake Off Bearish Headlines on China’s Lack of Buying
Soybeans saw initial pressure on Wednesday with various news headlines indicating China’s soybean stocks were burdensome and at the ports reached a record 10.3 MMT, up 3.6 MMT from last year. Chinese traders also were quoted saying China only had minimal soybean needs for the rest of 2025. Doherty says the market shook off that news and reversed higher into the close. Doherty says the market still believes that China is going to fulfill its purchase agreements.
Cattle Fail to See Follow Through Buying
After limit up closes on Monday in live and feeder cattle futures the markets have seen little follow through buying, which Doherty says isn’t a good technical sign. The market or at least the funds lack confidence in buying even though cash has held together and Choice boxed beef values were strong on Wednesday.
Milk Futures Lower in Reaction to Milk Production Report
Class III milk futures were sharply lower on Wednesday and have seen selling pressure the last two days in reaction to higher production in Monday’s USDA Milk Production Report. He says the beef on dairy market continues to provide incentive for producers to hold on to cows even with lower milk prices to cash in on higher beef values. Plus Doherty says cheese prices have softened which is also weighing on futures.
