Shah said copper remains his top commodity pick despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and volatility in global markets. “The metals are likely to do well; it is likely to outperform precious metals,” he said.
He believes the long-term fundamentals for copper remain strong as countries increasingly move towards protectionism while supply disruptions continue to impact commodity markets. According to Shah, restrictions on exports by countries such as Indonesia could further tighten supplies globally.
“So, the supply of copper may severely get impacted because of that,” he said, adding that “whatever dip you get is a buying opportunity.”
The bullish outlook also comes as AI-related investments continue to support demand for industrial metals. Copper is widely used in data centres, power infrastructure, electric vehicles and advanced electronics, making it one of the key commodities linked to the global AI and energy transition theme.
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Shah expects copper prices to eventually test the $15,000 mark, while aluminium and nickel are also likely to benefit from strong industrial demand.
At the same time, he expects crude oil prices to remain under pressure as markets increasingly anticipate a possible deal between the US and Iran. Shah said oil has repeatedly failed to hold gains despite tensions in West Asia, indicating that traders are expecting some diplomatic breakthrough.
“The likelihood of the deal between the US and Iran is now very high,” he said.
A softer crude oil environment could also help support the Indian rupee. Shah believes the rupee may have already peaked near current levels and could appreciate towards 94.50 in the near term if oil prices cool further and RBI measures continue to support the currency.
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On precious metals, Shah expects gold and silver to remain under pressure in the short term due to weak seasonal demand in India and concerns around monsoon-related rural consumption. However, he remains positive on gold over the longer term and expects prices to recover after a temporary correction.
Shah also expects the dollar index to gradually ease once inflation concerns stabilise and geopolitical tensions cool, which could provide additional support to commodities going forward.
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