Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry reported that grain and legume exports in the 2026/27 marketing year have fallen 14% year-on-year to 3.9mt as of 4 September. Corn exports nearly doubled from a year earlier to 1.7mt, while wheat shipments declined 40% to 1.8mt. The overall drop in exports was primarily driven by continued Russian attacks on Black Sea trade routes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry says domestic grain harvests exceeded 110mt as of 4 September, up 10.5mt from the same period last year. Higher yields supported the increase, with wheat production reaching 83.5mt. Meanwhile, winter sowing advanced to 2.3m hectares, compared with 2.1m hectares a year earlier.
France’s Agriculture Ministry reported that 27% of the corn crop was rated good-to-excellent as of 31 August, highlighting the impact of this summer’s heatwave across key growing regions. This was down from the previous week and well below the 62% recorded a year ago.
Speculative positioning remained supportive across grain markets. Money managers shifted to a net long position of 14,654 lots, the most bullish stance since May 2022. Black Sea tensions have seen speculators jump into the wheat market. In corn, speculative net longs rose by 54,549 lots to a record 431,062 lots. It was supported by expectations of a smaller US crop, the potential for lower European yields, and ongoing Black Sea disruptions. Similarly, the soybean net long increased by 42,929 lots to 241,183 lots, the highest level since August 2012.
The sugar market also saw strong speculative buying, with the net long in No.11 raw sugar growing by 36,685 lots to 243,467 lots- the highest since December 2022. Tightening supplies across major producing regions, including India, Thailand, and the EU, supported the move.
