There are not many big companies reporting earnings this week which might be a welcome relief after the volatility of the last few weeks. Let’s take a look at which companies are reporting this week and what the options market is saying.
This week we have Cisco Systems (CSCO), Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and NU Holdings (NU) as the main companies reporting earnings this week.
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Before a company reports earnings, implied volatility is usually high because the market is unsure about the outcome of the report. Speculators and hedgers create huge demand for the company’s options which increases the implied volatility, and therefore, the price of options.
After the earnings announcement, implied volatility usually drops back down to normal levels.
Let’s take a look at the expected range for these stocks. To calculate the expected range, look up the option chain and add together the price of the at-the-money put option and the at-the-money call option. Use the first expiry date after the earnings date. While this approach is not as accurate as a detailed calculation, it does serve as a reasonably accurate estimate.
Monday
OXY – 5.5%
B – 6.4%
CEG – 7.8%
KKR – 5.8%
Tuesday
PBR – 5.7%
Wednesday
Nothing of note
Thursday
NU – 7.4%
CSCO – 9.7%
Friday
Nothing of note
Option traders can use these expected moves to structure trades. Bearish traders can look at selling bear call spreads outside the expected range.
Bullish traders can sell bull put spreads outside the expected range, or look at naked puts for those with a higher risk tolerance.
Neutral traders can look at iron condors. When trading iron condors over earnings, it is best to keep the short strikes outside the expected range.
When trading options over earnings, it is best to stick to risk defined strategies and keep position size small. If the stock makes a larger than expected move and the trade suffers a full loss, it should not have more than a 1-3% effect on your portfolio.
Last Week’s Earnings Moves
AAPL -1.9% vs 4.3% expected
PLTR -1.7% vs 13.3% expected
AMD +1.0% vs 8.9% expected
