Were oil markets quietly primed? CFTC probes $800 million pre-announcement trades

US regulators are investigating whether oil traders may have had advance knowledge of President Donald Trump’s decision to delay planned strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure after an unusual burst of crude futures trading generated millions of dollars in profits.

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is probing a sharp rise in oil futures activity that took place minutes before Trump announced on March 23 that he was postponing strikes on Tehran’s oil facilities, the report said.

According to the WSJ, more than $800 million worth of US and international crude futures contracts changed hands during off-hours trading shortly before Trump’s announcement. Oil prices later fell by as much as 13 per cent, enabling several firms to secure multi-million-dollar gains. Oil futures markets typically record heavy daily trading volumes, but investors reportedly noticed a sudden surge in activity on March 23. Trading volumes jumped from a few hundred contracts per minute to several thousand within minutes before the announcement.

The WSJ, citing trading records, reported that at least five firms earned profits exceeding $5 million from well-timed crude futures trades. London-based Qube Research & Technologies reportedly made about $5 million, while Forza Fund Ltd. earned nearly $10 million. TotalEnergies’ trading arm Totsa posted a smaller gain of around $200,000. The report said the firms used different trading strategies. Some relied on automated systems designed to react rapidly to news developments and market signals, while others executed trades manually.

Among the biggest reported winners was Jane Street, which allegedly made around $19 million from oil futures trades that day. Jump Trading reportedly lost nearly $15 million. Other firms, including Virtu Financial, Shell, IMC Chicago, Paragon Trading Partners, TTG Capital and Tower Research Capital, also recorded significant gains, the newspaper reported.

The CFTC is now examining whether someone with prior knowledge of Trump’s decision traded on the information or passed it to others, people familiar with the matter told the WSJ. The regulator is reportedly reviewing activity linked to at least three firms, although none have been accused of wrongdoing.

Some firms told investigators that their trading decisions were influenced by a headline published by Semafor roughly 15 minutes before Trump’s Truth Social post. The article suggested the White House was seeking a way to avoid further conflict with Iran despite continuing attacks.

Qube Chief Operating Officer Stuart Brown said in an email quoted by the WSJ that the company’s trading systems were driven by models using multiple streams of data. “Qube’s investment decisions are model-driven, taking into account a large variety of data sources on a continuous basis, not a directional trade driven by a specific geopolitical comment/update/outcome,” Brown said.

TotalEnergies said it was unaware of any investigation involving Totsa and stressed that it maintained strict compliance standards. A representative for Metabit Trading, which is linked to Forza Fund Ltd., said the company had not been contacted by the CFTC.

The WSJ report added that the March 23 trading activity was not an isolated case. The regulator is also reportedly examining other suspicious spikes linked to Iran-related developments in April and May, including an incident on May 6 when roughly $700 million in crude futures contracts were traded before reports emerged of talks aimed at ending the Iran conflict.