I will deliver today’s market commentary. From the movements of major indices and the surge in crypto assets to trends in commodities and foreign exchange, I will explain in detail the market psychology and capital flows behind the numbers.
1. Introduction
Today’s major markets saw a day where the “selection and shift of risk assets” was extremely prominent, with capital flowing strongly into crypto assets and precious metal markets like gold and silver, while stock indices and foreign exchange showed slight adjustment trends.
Coupled with the significant drop in the crude oil market and the decline in government bond yields, investor sentiment is not just about risk-on or risk-off, but is moving ahead toward “assets with specific backing or growth scenarios.”
2. Japanese Stocks / US Stocks
📊 Major Indicator Data (as of 10/02)
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Nikkei 225 (Cash): 68,309.46 (-647.26 / -0.94%)
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TOPIX: 4,091.00 (-40.98 / -0.99%)
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JPX400: 36,692.18 (-314.41 / -0.85%)
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TSE Growth 250: 798.23 (-4.11 / -0.51%)
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NT Ratio: 16.70 (+0.01 / +0.06%)
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Japan VI (Volatility Index): 22.58 (-0.34 / -1.48%)
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Nikkei 225 Futures (CME/DEX/mini): 68,900 yen range to 69,100 yen range (showing a rebound of around +1.00%)
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Metaplanet (3350): 291 yen (-16 yen / -5.21%) *Rebounded to 296 yen in PTS
💬 Points of Consideration
In the cash market, both the Nikkei 225 and TOPIX fell by about 1%, with a broad decline across the TSE Prime, Standard, and Growth markets. However, Nikkei 225 futures (DEX/CFD/mini) showed a recovery to the 69,000 yen range, up over +1%, by the 5 PM hour, showing signs of a sharp rebound in after-hours trading following the market close.
The NT ratio remained almost flat at 16.70, indicating that there was no significant bias in trading between high-priced tech stocks and broad major stocks, and that the market as a whole was primarily undergoing bite-sized position adjustments. Also, the fact that the Japan VI fell to 22.58 (-1.48%) suggests that this is a quiet adjustment with an eye toward futures buybacks rather than panic selling.
As for individual stocks to watch, Metaplanet (3350), known for its Bitcoin holding strategy, fell 5.21% from the previous day to 291 yen during TSE trading hours. The reason the stock price moved inversely despite the underlying Bitcoin showing a sharp rise of over +3% (as mentioned below) is thought to be due to profit-taking driven by the weight of the margin buying ratio (40.20x) and short-term overheating. However, it rebounded to 296 yen in PTS (after-hours trading), and a move following the underlying asset (BTC) is expected.
3. Crypto Assets
📊 Key Indicator Data
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Bitcoin (BTC/JPY): 13,639,823 JPY (+432,938 JPY / +3.28%)
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Bitcoin / USD: $86,456.01 (+$3,083.09 / +3.70%)
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Ethereum (ETH/JPY): 436,314 JPY (+2.85%)
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Ripple (XRP/JPY): 242.79 JPY (+3.31%)
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Solana (SOL/JPY): 19,318 JPY (+3.98%)
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Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 72 (Greed / Bullish) ※-2 points from previous day
💬 Analysis Points
The crypto asset market is showing an impressive, broad-based rally. Bitcoin has surpassed $86,000 in dollar terms and the 13.6 million yen level in yen terms, with major altcoins (ETH, XRP, SOL) also following suit with strong gains of 2-4%.
**The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at “72”**, maintaining a strong “Greed” (bullish) territory. In contrast to the dollar’s decline, the yen’s appreciation, and the lackluster performance of the stock market, capital inflows into Bitcoin as digital gold and the Web3 ecosystem are accelerating further.
The structure is strongly supported by the trend of incorporating BTC into corporate treasuries, as seen with MicroStrategy and Metaplanet, as well as “flight capital from fiat currency” driven by expectations of US interest rate cuts and geopolitical risks.
4. Commodities & Forex
📊 Key Indicator Data
[Forex & Interest Rates]
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USD/JPY: 157.586 (-0.484 / -0.31%)
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EUR/JPY: 177.397 (-0.304 / -0.17%)
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Japanese 10-Year Government Bond Yield: 3.090% (-0.015 / -0.48%)
[Commodities]
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NY Gold Futures: $4,214.3 (+0.28%)
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NY Silver Futures: $61.620 (+0.73%)
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Platinum Futures: $1,752.1 (+1.70%)
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WTI Crude Oil Futures: $89.81 (-3.06 / -3.29%)
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Brent Crude Oil Futures: $100.02 (-2.29 / -2.24%)
💬 Analysis Points
In the foreign exchange market, the dollar/yen pair saw a slight rebound to the 157.50 yen level, with the yen strengthening (-0.31%). The 10-year government bond yield also fell to 3.090%, indicating a slight move toward safe-haven assets in the bond market.
The most symbolic trend in the commodities sector is the “escape from energy and concentration in physical precious metals.”
WTI crude oil plunged to $89.81 per barrel (-3.29%), breaking below the $90 mark. While concerns over a global economic slowdown and views of weakening demand are exerting downward pressure, hedge funds are rapidly flowing into the precious metals sector, including NY Gold ($4,214.3), NY Silver ($61.62), and Platinum (+1.70%).
It can be read that investors’ liquidity preference has clearly shifted from “buying crude oil due to inflation concerns” to “buying tangible assets (gold, silver, BTC) to prepare for uncertainty and declining purchasing power.”
5. Summary and Analysis
Looking at today’s market conditions as a whole, the following three liquidity trends stand out.
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Retreat of short-term capital from the stock market and expectations for a rebound in futures
Although physical stocks fell, judging by the strong rebound in the evening futures market (over +1%), the appetite for buying on dips at lower levels remains very strong. -
Dual safe-haven status for “Crypto Assets & Precious Metals”
While demand for crude oil as an inflation hedge is waning, gold (over $4,200) and Bitcoin (over $86,000) are being bought simultaneously as risk hedges and growth assets, creating an extremely characteristic market environment. -
Temporary volatility in individual stocks (e.g., Metaplanet)
There are cases where stock prices lag behind the rise in the underlying asset (BTC), but once supply and demand adjustments progress, there is a high possibility that buying interest in crypto-related stocks will return.
For investors, this is a phase that requires a strategy conscious of the rising presence of stateless assets like gold, silver, and BTC within portfolios, rather than a simple dualism of “stocks or cash.”
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