Resistance Confluence at 100-Day Moving Average
Key near-term resistance is not only at the top of the pattern at $4,774 but also near the 100-day moving average, now at $4,794. Gold would need to sustain an advance above that average before it has a chance to continue higher, since it is a long-term trend indicator and was successfully tested as resistance during the prior advance in April. This creates a layered resistance zone where momentum must build decisively to shift broader trend conditions.
Upside Continuation Targets if Breakout Holds
A decisive advance above the 100-day average puts gold in a position to target the prior lower swing high of $4,891, followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $5,024. If reached, the downtrend line would have been recovered, putting gold in a position to target the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement confluence zone near $5,276 to $5,301, approximately.
Bearish Breakdown Path Remains Active
Alternatively, the current bearish retracement that followed the January peak is retained with a drop first below $4,638 and then the higher swing low of $4,500. Lower targets end with the 200-day moving average, currently near $4,342. A sustained break below these levels would instead reinforce downside continuation within the larger corrective structure.
