The Iridium Vote Is Done. Here’s the Number Rocket Lab Bulls Keep Missing

Key Takeaways

• Iridium stockholders approved Rocket Lab’s cash-and-stock takeover on September 24, with 99.6% of votes cast in favor, leaving regulatory approvals as the main hurdle before a targeted mid-2027 close.

• Rocket Lab used $371.2 million in free cash flow over the four quarters through June 2026, up 82% from the prior four quarters, as Neutron spending climbed.

• Iridium generated $288.3 million in free cash flow over the same stretch, enough to cover most of Rocket Lab’s burn, but not all of it.

Rocket Lab Stock Gets a Cash Engine That Covers Most of the Burn

On September 24, Iridium’s stockholders gave Rocket Lab the answer it needed. About 99.6% of votes cast backed the merger, representing roughly 81% of outstanding shares.

Each Iridium holder is set to receive $27 in cash plus Rocket Lab shares under an exchange ratio with a collar, a package valued at $54 per share. Rocket Lab stock closed at $74 on September 25.

The vote matters because of what Rocket Lab looks like on its own. Q2 revenue hit a record $234 million, up 62% from a year earlier. Cash moved the other way.

Free cash flow came in at negative $110.1 million in Q2 2026, after negative $114.2 million in Q4 2025. Over the four quarters through June, Rocket Lab burned $371.2 million, up from $204.1 million in the four quarters before.

CFO Adam Spice tied the Q2 step-up to building additional Neutron vehicles ahead of first flight and restocking the supply chain at Mynaric, the optical terminal maker Rocket Lab closed on during the quarter.

Iridium runs on a different rhythm.

Quarterly revenue has held between $212.8 million and $226.9 million for eight straight quarters. Free cash flow stayed positive every quarter, ranging from $36.5 million to $108.9 million, with the first quarter of each year running weakest. Over the last four quarters, Iridium turned $884.2 million of revenue into $288.3 million of free cash flow, a 33% conversion rate.

Simply adding the two trailing figures together leaves a gap of about $83 million, meaning Iridium covers roughly 78% of Rocket Lab’s current burn. In Q2 alone, Iridium’s $92.3 million against Rocket Lab’s $110.1 million use leaves an $18 million shortfall. That math ignores deal financing and synergies, so it works as a rough gauge, not a forecast.

The Iridium Vote Buys Time, but Neutron Still Decides the Cash Story

The shareholder vote clears the most visible obstacle, but it does not finish the turnaround.

Iridium brings a profitable base and a constellation Peter Beck says remains good into 2035. It does not bring much growth. Trailing revenue rose 3% from the prior four quarters, while free cash flow slipped 12%, from $326.0 million to $288.3 million. Beck conceded on the call that Iridium is “a relatively slow-growing business.”

Shareholders are also funding the transition. Rocket Lab raised $1.08 billion through at-the-market stock sales in Q2, then launched a $1.94 billion stock sale program in August. The stock portion of the Iridium consideration adds more shares at closing.

That puts the weight back on Neutron. Management expects adjusted EBITDA to turn positive the quarter after Neutron’s first successful launch, with free cash flow turning positive 18 to 24 months later. Beck said the window for a launch this year “is narrowing,” with the rocket still targeted to reach the pad in Q4 2026.

The evidence supports a narrower judgment than the deal headlines suggest. Iridium makes Rocket Lab’s cash problem smaller and far more manageable, but it does not erase it while Neutron remains in heavy build-out.

The next test is Q3 free cash flow, which Spice guided to stay elevated. As a rough marker, if Rocket Lab’s quarterly burn eases back toward the $55 million to $70 million range it posted in mid-2025, Iridium’s recent average of about $72 million per quarter would roughly offset it. Regulatory approvals and Neutron’s stage testing are the other two dates that matter for Rocket Lab stock.