October 14, 2026 | Manbou Practice Research Institute
1. QTEC Daily Swing Trading: Latest Performance Report
I am currently conducting practical research on daily swing trading using QTEC (First Trust NASDAQ-100 Technology Sector Index Fund), an ETF related to the NASDAQ 100.
Here is the report on the current operational status.
Item Current Status Trading Symbol QTEC Trading Direction Buy (Long) Trading Method Daily Swing Trading Purchase Price $331.53 Current Unrealized Loss -$8.29Profit/Loss Ratio from Purchase -2.49% Fees, etc., are all reflected in the profit/loss Current Decision Continue holding
* Profit and loss are based on the operational record as of October 14, 2026. Since the position is open, it will fluctuate in the future.
In this trade, I entered after confirming a buy signal, but subsequently, selling pressure on US tech stocks intensified, and I am currently in an unrealized loss position.
However, the purpose of this is not simply to make a profit from a single trade.
I am aiming to verify how well the daily trading rules function in the actual market and to establish a long-term, reproducible trading method. I want to avoid selling emotionally just because an unrealized loss has occurred.
I want to avoid selling emotionally just because an unrealized loss has occurred.
On the other hand, as long as I continue to hold the position, it is also important to make exit decisions based on market changes.
This method is still in the verification stage and is not an established investment strategy. I will continue to improve the rules while publishing the actual operational results.
2. There is an Important Difference Between QTEC and the NASDAQ 100
QTEC, which I am currently using, is not an ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100 index itself.
It is an ETF that aims to track the “NASDAQ-100 Technology Sector Index,” which focuses primarily on technology-related companies among those that make up the NASDAQ 100.
It also adopts a mechanism that, in principle, equalizes the weighting of each stock.
Therefore, there are times when QTEC falls even if the NASDAQ 100 index is rising, or conversely, it may rise more than the NASDAQ 100.
This is a very important point in this research.
In addition to the overall direction of the NASDAQ 100, it is necessary to check the internal trends of the technology sector, such as semiconductor stocks and software stocks.
In future research, I plan to improve the accuracy of my trading decisions by comparing the daily charts of the NASDAQ 100 index and QTEC. 3. Current Status and Future Outlook of the NASDAQ 100
In the US market on October 13, 2026, unstable price movements continued, centered on high-tech stocks.
The NASDAQ 100 index is hovering around 30,500 points, and QTEC has also fallen to the 323 dollar range.
I am particularly focused on the correction in semiconductor-related stocks.
Recently, intensifying competition with Chinese semiconductor manufacturers, the profitability of capital investment in AI, and high US interest rates have become burdens on stock prices.
However, the demand for AI itself has not disappeared.
I believe this is an important point.
The long-term growth of the AI industry and the short-term rise in AI-related stock prices do not necessarily align.
Even if AI technology spreads throughout society, if corporate profit growth fails to meet market expectations, stock prices may fall.
Conversely, if corporate performance improves more than expected during this correction phase, there is a possibility that the NASDAQ 100 will return to an upward trend.
Moving forward, I believe that corporate earnings and trends in AI-related capital investment will be particularly important factors for decision-making.
4. Forecast for NASDAQ 100 and QTEC for the next 2 to 4 weeks
Based on recent price trends and the market environment, I have created three scenarios.
The forecast period is approximately 2 to 4 weeks starting from October 14, 2026.
Scenario Subjective Probability NASDAQ 100 Forecast QTEC Forecast
Bullish/Resumption of Rise 30% 31,400-32,500 $338-$355
Neutral/Consolidation 45% 29,800-31,400 $315-$338
Bearish/Expanded Correction 25% 28,000-29,800 $290-$315
*Probabilities and price ranges are subjective scenario forecasts conditioned by AI. They are not statistical probabilities based on backtesting using historical data and do not guarantee future prices.
The most likely outcome is ‘a development of searching for direction from consolidation’
At this point, rather than the NASDAQ 100 rising significantly immediately, I am primarily considering a development where it searches for direction while repeating corrections and rebounds.
The reason for this is that while growth expectations for AI-related companies remain strong, selling pressure on semiconductor stocks and caution regarding high interest rates also remain.
However, if major technology companies exceed market expectations in their earnings announcements and demonstrate the profitability of their AI businesses, I believe the possibility of an upward scenario will increase.
For me, while there is still room for growth in the AI industry over the medium to long term, I have a somewhat cautious view on the NASDAQ 100 in the short term.
5. Important Future Price Levels for QTEC
In this QTEC operation, I am focusing on the following price ranges.
QTEC Price Range Focus Points $340–$343 Area testing recent rebound highs $331–$336 Near purchase price; area to watch for selling into strength $325–$327 Price range recognized during the recent decline $320–$321 Important support candidate near recent lows $310–$315 Next observation area if the decline expands
I consider the area around $320 to be particularly important.
If it rebounds here and recovers to $325–$327 on a daily closing basis, the short-term downward pressure may weaken.
Furthermore, if it breaks above the $331–$336 range, it will be a factor to consider for a return to an uptrend.
Conversely, if it clearly breaks below the $320 level and fails to recover thereafter, we must be wary of a continuation of the downtrend.
Note that these are observation levels set based on current price movements and are not prices verified as trading rules.
6. How to think about the current unrealized loss of -2.49%?
The current unrealized loss is -2.49%.
This is by no means an unusual range of fluctuation in stock investing, but that does not mean it should be taken lightly.
What is important is not just the size of the unrealized loss, but whether the basis for the entry is still valid.
In daily swing trading, I will focus on researching the following points.
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Whether the daily trend is in an upward, neutral, or downward state
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Whether the buy signal confirmed at the time of entry is still valid
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Whether the decline is a temporary adjustment or a trend reversal
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Whether the conditions for profit-taking and stop-loss are reproducible rules
At this point, I will continue to hold.
However, continuing to hold does not guarantee a recovery in profits.
In the future, I would like to quantify trend reversals and exit conditions to reduce ambiguity in trading decisions.
7. What I consider most important in this research
What is truly important in investing is not winning a single trade, but creating a system that allows you to accumulate profits as a result of repeating trades dozens or hundreds of times.
To achieve this, it is necessary to record and analyze not only winning trades but also losing trades.
Regarding this QTEC operation as well, I will disclose the status, including the unrealized loss, and verify the results.
Currently, my research is centered on FX, but I also want to develop daily swing trading of US stocks as one of my important investment methods in the future.
This is because advancing research across different markets and different time frames without relying on a single method may lead to the stability of long-term asset management.
Of course, simply having multiple methods does not mean that risk is diversified. It is also necessary to verify the profit and loss correlation between methods.
8. Summary: Continue holding QTEC, be cautious about NASDAQ 100 in the short term
The current operation status is an unrealized loss of $8.29, or -2.49%, including fees.
Regarding the future of the NASDAQ 100, I expect that it is most likely to repeat adjustments and rebounds in the short term.
On the other hand, I still have expectations for the long-term growth potential of the AI industry.
However, since technological growth does not necessarily lead to stock price increases, it is necessary to carefully check both corporate performance and stock prices.
Regarding this QTEC, I will continue to hold it.
I will continue to report the operation results periodically and verify not only what went well but also what needs to be improved.
Since it is just after the start of the research, the effectiveness of the trading method has not yet been confirmed.
I would like to accumulate actual trading data from now on and gradually improve the accuracy.
[Disclaimer]
This article introduces personal investment research and actual operation status, and does not recommend buying or selling specific stocks. Market forecasts are hypotheses based on information available as of October 14, 2026, and do not guarantee future investment results. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.
[Reference Materials]
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First Trust: QTEC official fund information
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Nasdaq: NASDAQ100 index data
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Reuters: US stock market report for October 13, 2026
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Investing.com: QTEC price trends
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