Grain markets strengthened at the start of the week, with CBOT wheat rising around 2% as renewed concerns over Black Sea exports resurfaced. Turkey briefly suspended vessel transit through the Black Sea over the weekend due to heightened security risks linked to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, although traffic has since resumed.
Supply concerns were reinforced by sharply lower Ukrainian export forecasts. Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry now expects grain exports of 29.6mt in 2026/27, down from an earlier estimate of 64.4mt, with wheat exports cut to 8.3mt from 17.6mt. Storage capacity is also becoming a growing issue, with available grain and oilseed storage reportedly at risk of being exhausted by October.
Elsewhere, French grain production is expected to weaken in the 2026/27 season. Total grain output is forecast to fall 5.2% year-on-year to 46.1mt, driven by lower wheat and corn production amid drought and adverse weather conditions. French corn output is expected to drop to its lowest level since 1980.
Positioning data showed mixed sentiment across agricultural markets. Money managers increased their net short position in CBOT wheat by 16,906 lots to 23,786 lots, reflecting continued bearish sentiment despite recent price gains. In contrast, speculative net longs in CBOT corn increased by 13,547 lots to 181,946 lots, while net longs in soybeans fell by 29,535 lots to 125,466 lots after four consecutive weeks of gains.
