OPENING CALL
Stock futures pointed to a higher open Friday, extending a rally which could see the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reach their biggest three-week percentage gains since 2020.
The indexes were in positive territory before the opening bell, after having closed on Thursday at an all-time high.
The anticipated higher open signals that investors are feeling optimistic about peace in the Middle East.
This follows from Israel saying it has agreed to a 10-day cease-fire with Lebanon after weeks of fighting against Hezbollah, and after Trump said the U.S. and Iran were “very close” to reaching a deal and might hold discussions this weekend.
Oil prices were declining Friday , despite there being considerable hurdles between the warring parties for negotiators to address. So too were Treasury yields and the dollar.
“Oil eased, but the market is still trading on diplomacy headlines rather than calm nerves. The broader supply story has not gone away, with disruptions to Middle East production still feeding into the physical market, suggesting prices may remain elevated even if diplomacy progresses,” Saxo Bank said.
Kudotrade said clear diplomatic progress in the Middle East could fuel appetite for risk and drive flows out of the dollar.
“A clear path toward the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to lower oil prices, limiting inflationary concerns, and could drive Treasury yields to the downside.”
Stocks to Watch
Alcoa shares fell 2.7% after the company posted lower sales in the first quarter.
Netflix shares fell 9.3% after the company forecast lower second-quarter operating margins on year.
QVC Group shares were up 3.6%, rebounding somewhat after shares fell when it commenced a voluntary Chapter 11 bankruptcy .
Watch For:
Canada Housing Starts for March
Today’s Top Headlines/Must Reads:
– Clash Between Trump and the Pope Is Dividing American Catholics
– Trump Bets Economic Pain Will Finally Force Iran to Reopen Strait
– Sam Altman’s Side Hustles Blur the Line Between OpenAI’s Interests and His Own
MARKET WRAPS
Forex:
The dollar fell against a basket of currencies as optimism regarding a peaceful solution in the Middle East grew.
The euro could strengthen to $1.22 in 12 months, from $1.1797 currently, as the European Central Bank looks likely to raise interest rates while the Federal Reserve cuts rates, according to Danske Bank.
Sterling fell slightly against the dollar and against the euro as renewed concerns emerged about a leadership challenge for Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
“This is sterling negative given a perception that a leadership change could herald additional borrowing and changes to the fiscal rules,” ING said.
Bitcoin edged lower as uncertainty over the Middle East conflict reduced demand for the risky asset.
Bonds:
Treasury yields turned lower, according to Tradeweb, reversing small gains made earlier during European trading hours.
The 10-year Treasury yield has closely followed markets’ softening expectations of Federal Reserve policy rates, SEB added.
“We think further softening in Fed pricing will keep the 10-year Treasury yield mostly within the 4.10% to 4.30% range over the coming months.”
Optimism about the cease-fire in the Middle East has pulled front-end global bond yields further lower, but they have lagged the recovery in risk assets, Barclays said.
“We believe this reflects expectations of inflation persistence. Our key takeaway is that the sharp increase in uncertainty and risk aversion across classes triggered by the Iran war has been mostly unwound. However, modal expectations around the price of oil and inflation have shifted the regime toward ‘higher for longer.'”
Energy:
Oil prices fell after a 10-day cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon took effect and after President Trump said the U.S. might hold discussions with Iran this weekend.
Natural Gas
European natural-gas prices were set for a weekly decline of more than 4% despite persistent concerns over disrupted LNG supplies in the Middle East.
“The region competes with Asia for LNG cargoes, as more imports are now required to replenish depleted gas stocks,” ANZ said.
Metals:
Gold futures were on track for another weekly gain, as optimism over potential U.S.-Iran talks and a cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon weighed on oil prices and supported broader market sentiment.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
French Telecoms Majors in $24 Billion Talks to Consolidate Operations
France’s Bouygues Telecom, Orange and Free-iliad Group said they have renewed talks with Altice Group for the acquisition of most of its French telecommunications operations, and have put forward an improved offer valuing the assets at 20.35 billion euros, equivalent to roughly $24 billion.
The parties revived discussions and kicked off due diligence in January following months of negotiations. Altice, which is owned by French-Israeli billionaire Patrick Drahi, in October rejected a 17 billion-euro offer including debt from the three companies for a large part of its French telecom business, grouped under the SFR brand.
Ericsson Targets Networks Growth Despite Caution Over Rising Costs
STOCKHOLM-Ericsson expects networks growth despite reporting a sales drop in North America in the first quarter and warning that the cost of components is rising.
The Swedish telecommunications-equipment company said Friday that its key networks business posted organic sales growth of 7% in the quarter, when lower sales in North America were offset by growth in most other regions.
Fed’s Miran Says He May Trim Rate Cut Outlook, Citing Inflation
The Trump administration spent months demanding the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. This week, two people with close ties to the White House said waiting to move makes some sense.
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran, speaking at an economic forum in Washington, D.C., said Thursday he is reconsidering his rate cut outlook for the year, trimming his projection from four cuts to potentially three and acknowledging the inflation picture had become more complicated even before war with Iran began.
Trump Bets Economic Pain Will Finally Force Iran to Reopen Strait
An intensifying U.S. naval blockade of Iran is aimed at inflicting such severe economic pain that Tehran will be compelled to submit quickly to Washington’s demands to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and abandon its nuclear ambitions.
With crude exports from Iranian ports effectively stopped up, the country will be deprived of a large chunk of its oil revenue. It could also be forced to start shutting down oil wells within weeks as it runs out of storage space, a costly and damaging prospect that could impair production for years to come.
Same AI Trade, Same Problems
The artificial-intelligence trade came roaring back to life this week, with the Nasdaq Composite closing at a fresh high on Thursday, marking 12 straight days of gains. Underneath the optimism, however, are some of the same concerns about circular finance that plagued the stocks at the start of the year.
Those are valid concerns ahead of a flurry of Big Tech earnings reports due out next week, including Google parent Alphabet, Facebook parent Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Apple. Investors had gotten antsy about eye-watering AI bills, and they’re eager for any hint that massive spending is slowing-or at least evidence that companies are seeing returns on all that money.
Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson warns U.S. needs an emergency ‘break-the-glass’ plan if Treasury demand collapses
Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on Thursday urged U.S. policymakers to prepare an emergency plan in case demand for Treasurys breaks down – warning that a crisis in the government bond market could trigger severe consequences across the economy.
“We need an emergency break-the-glass plan which is targeted and short term on the shelf, so it’s ready to go when we hit the wall,” Paulson said in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Wall Street Week on Thursday.
Oil Prices Fall. Trump Says Iran War Going ‘Swimmingly’ and Should End Soon.
Oil prices were falling Friday as a 10-day cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon came into effect and President Donald Trump sounded optimistic about a deal with Iran.
Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, fell 0.6% to $98.78 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures slipped 1.2% to $90.09. WTI futures have fallen 11% in April but remain 57% up so far this year.
ICE Acting Chief Todd Lyons to Depart
Todd Lyons, the acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement who oversaw the Trump administration’s controversial migration crackdown, is set to leave the department in May.
Lyons’s tenure atop the agency coincided with a sweeping crackdown on immigration across the U.S., in which masked agents were shuttled into cities to conduct roving street patrols with the aim of rounding up migrants.
House Rejects Compromise Surveillance Bill, Forcing Short-Term FISA Extension
WASHINGTON-A compromise House proposal to renew a powerful national-security surveillance program for five years failed to advance early Friday, an embarrassing setback for Republican Party leaders who thought they could muscle the measure over the finish line in overnight votes.
With no immediate path forward, the House voted to extend the law for another two weeks until April 30.
Clash Between Trump and the Pope Is Dividing American Catholics
President Trump’s feud with Pope Leo XIV and the president’s AI-generated image of himself as a Christ-like figure have become a global story about the clash of the two most powerful Americans-and one that is testing the loyalties of the roughly 53 million U.S. Roman Catholics.
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April 17, 2026 06:22 ET (10:22 GMT)
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