If the 10-year yield touches 4.29% or even 4.30%, I am short gold, probably trying to send it back to $4,600. It has been drifting lower during the day, and I think that is something that we need to pay close attention to. With this, I think you have a situation where the $4,600 level continues to be a floor in the market, and the 5,000 level above ends up being your ceiling.
Market Volatility and Interest Rate Trends
I do think eventually we will probably take off, but as long as there are concerns about the war, thereby keeping interest rates somewhat elevated, gold might struggle. I like the idea of buying dips; I also recognize that you have to be very cautious about getting too big into this market because of all of the headline threat.
Ultimately, I have a likelihood of being long of this market. I do not really like shorting gold, at least not for anything more than a short-term move, but with this, I also recognize that you need to be very cautious. Position size is crucial to pay attention to. All things being equal once the war ends, I think gold continues to go higher.
